1. If I could have a robot that could do any one thing, I would want it to be able to go to work for me. The one problem with this would be that since the robot would be at work, I would of course not be. Usually when I am not working, then I am spending money. So, I would need it to do a really good job in order to get a promotion, or just get another, higher paying job.
2. Robots could be created to include holographic projectors or stereograms, like what is commonly seen in the Star Wars films. Not only could they have the technology built into them, but they could aid in the development of the technology. So, if artificial intelligence is advanced enough, robots could come up with new ideas for enhancement of the technology of just in the manufacture of it.
3. I thought the time lapse videos were very interesting. It's like when your mom would mark your height on the wall every year on your birthday, but in this case you can actually see the changes occurring. Its almost like your watching an individual grow in fast forward.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Homework 10
1. Robotics could be very applicable to holography. For one, the use of robots could be very helpful in the manufacture of holographic devices. Also, depending on the advancement of artificial intelligence, robots could be used to provide new ideas on the use or development of holography. Lastly, robots themselves could be integrated to have holographic displays.
2. My presentation begins with a focus on the current holographic technologies available, and how they work. It then discusses what is in store for it in the near future. Lastly, I discuss possible applications for this technology, effects on society, and how TRIZ 40 principles could aid in the development of it.
3. I have done research on the most common forms of holograms available to us today. These are the sometimes green or reflective images found on credit cards or packages, such as DVDs. They are very simple, basically consisting of images laid over each other. I also found out more on the different types of holograms. One of these is holographic projection. This is not a true hologram, rather a projection onto a bounce screen. This image is then seen on Mylar film. This works to give the appearance of a hologram without actually being one. I have added how this works to my presentation, including a video link for it. Other research I did resulted in finding out more about other types of holograms. The latest emerging one is holographic stereograms. This is what I truly invision when I think of a hologram. This is what is commonly seen in the Star Wars film. This technology requires the bending of light to produce the image. Additional things I have added to my presentation are the applications of this emerging technology. They could be used for such things as NASCAR driver training, Martial Arts sparring partners, weather studies, overcoming public speaking fears, holographic modeling, entertainment and video games, and possibly replacing Wal-Mart greeters.
Word count: 212
2. My presentation begins with a focus on the current holographic technologies available, and how they work. It then discusses what is in store for it in the near future. Lastly, I discuss possible applications for this technology, effects on society, and how TRIZ 40 principles could aid in the development of it.
3. I have done research on the most common forms of holograms available to us today. These are the sometimes green or reflective images found on credit cards or packages, such as DVDs. They are very simple, basically consisting of images laid over each other. I also found out more on the different types of holograms. One of these is holographic projection. This is not a true hologram, rather a projection onto a bounce screen. This image is then seen on Mylar film. This works to give the appearance of a hologram without actually being one. I have added how this works to my presentation, including a video link for it. Other research I did resulted in finding out more about other types of holograms. The latest emerging one is holographic stereograms. This is what I truly invision when I think of a hologram. This is what is commonly seen in the Star Wars film. This technology requires the bending of light to produce the image. Additional things I have added to my presentation are the applications of this emerging technology. They could be used for such things as NASCAR driver training, Martial Arts sparring partners, weather studies, overcoming public speaking fears, holographic modeling, entertainment and video games, and possibly replacing Wal-Mart greeters.
Word count: 212
Homework 9
1. Science does not prove anything. Rather, it uses gathered evidence to support or disprove some theory or hypothesis.
2. Currently holography is in a state of diffusion, which means the base technology has been developed and is being used more an more. It is however, obviously not used by your average consumer. The most recent advances in the technology are related to storage of holograms. Sony and other large companies are researching ultra HD storage discs and other technologies on which to keep the data. The most tangible thing that an average consumer has to holograms is 3D television and movies. More and more movies these days are being displayed in 3D. There is also a growing market for 3D televisions. Theses televisions are displaying cable TV programs in TV, as well as video games and 3D Blu-rays. Holographic projection is also big, but is not a true holographic stereogram. However, significant breakthroughs, allowing the bending of light, are being made to make this possible.
3. Privacy - with growing technologies and a push to information on the web, individuals are becoming more and more open to each other, willingly or unwillingly. A prime example is social networking. With your personal information on the web, it is subject to being viewed even if you think you have proper privacy controls.
Security - Branching off my example of social media decreasing privacy, it also has a negative effect on security. It gives a new avenue for which you information can be obtained. If it were not on the web, it would be more secure. It is much more difficult for your credit card information to be stolen if you never purchase items online. From a more broad perspective, computer security is increase. However, so is the amount of information on computers. Right now, I do not believe that security is increasing proportionally to the increase in information.
Quality - technology, personally brings my quality of life up. I love being able to use my cell phone for nearly anything, and I also love video games. However, you can argue that time spent on these devices causes quality of life to go down, as it can cause less time spent with others, such as family and friends. In my case I am able to play video games with friends and family who are out of state, therefore spending more time "with" them. If this is asking about the quality of technology, I think it is safe to safe that it is definitely increasing.
Control - with ever expanding technologies, there is a need for a proportional growth in control, which I do not believe is being sufficiently kept up with.
2. Currently holography is in a state of diffusion, which means the base technology has been developed and is being used more an more. It is however, obviously not used by your average consumer. The most recent advances in the technology are related to storage of holograms. Sony and other large companies are researching ultra HD storage discs and other technologies on which to keep the data. The most tangible thing that an average consumer has to holograms is 3D television and movies. More and more movies these days are being displayed in 3D. There is also a growing market for 3D televisions. Theses televisions are displaying cable TV programs in TV, as well as video games and 3D Blu-rays. Holographic projection is also big, but is not a true holographic stereogram. However, significant breakthroughs, allowing the bending of light, are being made to make this possible.
3. Privacy - with growing technologies and a push to information on the web, individuals are becoming more and more open to each other, willingly or unwillingly. A prime example is social networking. With your personal information on the web, it is subject to being viewed even if you think you have proper privacy controls.
Security - Branching off my example of social media decreasing privacy, it also has a negative effect on security. It gives a new avenue for which you information can be obtained. If it were not on the web, it would be more secure. It is much more difficult for your credit card information to be stolen if you never purchase items online. From a more broad perspective, computer security is increase. However, so is the amount of information on computers. Right now, I do not believe that security is increasing proportionally to the increase in information.
Quality - technology, personally brings my quality of life up. I love being able to use my cell phone for nearly anything, and I also love video games. However, you can argue that time spent on these devices causes quality of life to go down, as it can cause less time spent with others, such as family and friends. In my case I am able to play video games with friends and family who are out of state, therefore spending more time "with" them. If this is asking about the quality of technology, I think it is safe to safe that it is definitely increasing.
Control - with ever expanding technologies, there is a need for a proportional growth in control, which I do not believe is being sufficiently kept up with.
Homework 8
1. The most interesting or notable topic I took from Earth 2100 is the scarcity of drinkable water. This is something I had not considered until seeing this show. Drinkable water is something we pretty much take for granted. I have never had an issue with getting a glass of water whenever I've needed it. I drink water constantly. It is pretty much the only drink I consume. If this is going to be an issue in the future, I would be in big trouble. Obviously, all of would as water is necessary to life, but I am just considering how much I actually love water, and what it would be like if it were not freely available. Another point I took from the video is the effect of global warming and what it would contribute to rising water levels. I am not sure how I feel about global warming, as I have not done much research on it, but any time I think about it, I consider oranges. I know this seems strange, but think about this next time you eat one. Do you notice that during the winter months the rind of an orange is thinker. I realize that this in no way discredits the overall view of global warmer, but every year, the rinds are always thick.
2. Possible effects of holography on global warming: With the use of holography in let's say conferencing, it would not be necessary to travel. So, a businessman may need to give a presentation across the country, but with holographic presentations, he will not need to fly or drive a car. This will reduce carbon footprint by not using the energy and fuel required to travel. However, the use of holography does come at some cost. It requires power to send the imagery, as well as display it. This will in turn increase energy consumption. The question is will these two offset each other, or will one outweigh the other?
Word count: 328
2. Possible effects of holography on global warming: With the use of holography in let's say conferencing, it would not be necessary to travel. So, a businessman may need to give a presentation across the country, but with holographic presentations, he will not need to fly or drive a car. This will reduce carbon footprint by not using the energy and fuel required to travel. However, the use of holography does come at some cost. It requires power to send the imagery, as well as display it. This will in turn increase energy consumption. The question is will these two offset each other, or will one outweigh the other?
Word count: 328
Homework 7
1. I would like to discuss the spoil sport of prediction that bugs me. This would be Spoil Sport of Prediction # 4: the Butterfly Effect. First of all, I can see plausibility in this effect. It is very likely that certain small events can trigger other events, eventually snowballing; similar to your example with a butterfly flapping it wings, and then causing a hurricane. The problem I have with this is the idea that it started with that one butterfly, or that it was the sole contributor to the beginning of the event. Surely one butterfly flapping its wings will cause movement in the air, but what is not being considered here is that other events occurring at the same time and not necessarily afterwords that aid in the following effects. So, it was not just the one butterfly, but a group of them, or perhaps a butterfly and a nearby bird. Another point to make with this theory is that the events that lead up to the butterfly flapping its wings in that location at that exact time are not considered. Observer effect can be applied to this. If an individual were to be spectating that butterfly, it could been "scared" and moved. What if that individual were not there? What if that butterfly had died days earlier? The possibilities leading up to that event which could have effected it are endless. Word count: 233
2. A spoil sport of prediction that I would like to relate to my project is the Observer Effect. This is most applicable as it deals with individuals viewing an image. As the technology is developed, it will be the humans viewing them that will alter what the future holds for holography. Also, I could become interested enough in the topic that I decide to get involved with it. By doing my research, I could become motivated to work in the field of holography.
3. Presentation date: Since all other projects were done before the final, I will be presenting Wednesday, December 7th.
2. A spoil sport of prediction that I would like to relate to my project is the Observer Effect. This is most applicable as it deals with individuals viewing an image. As the technology is developed, it will be the humans viewing them that will alter what the future holds for holography. Also, I could become interested enough in the topic that I decide to get involved with it. By doing my research, I could become motivated to work in the field of holography.
3. Presentation date: Since all other projects were done before the final, I will be presenting Wednesday, December 7th.
Homework 6
1. Below is a list of useful links/articles to my project. I also went through everyone else's blogs, but did not find any postings related to my topic for me to append.
http://www.futuredimensions.net/2010/03/feeling-is-believing-%E2%80%93-touchable-holography-research-pushes-boundaries/
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18202242
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=32&ved=0CB8QFjABOB4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.11.9577%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&rct=j&q=Future%20of%20holography&ei=L_X-TJngFIT7lwe_3-3ICA&usg=AFQjCNFA137CAkNKWRe3K_9soa7uDlJWTA&sig2=BJweoczvJ53Ong5TCXYhzQ&cad=rja
2. Outline for report/presentation:
I first plan on discussing the current, available technology in the field of holography.
I will then discuss what the near future for holography looks like based on my research.
Lastly, I plan on discussing some of my views for the later future of holography, perhaps based on the development of the technology by applying TRIZ 40 principles.
3. One of my links in the answer to question 1 would fit into the last category of my project. The other two could fit into the second section. So, for part 2, I could use the first and second links. For part 3, I would use information from the third link mentioned above. I can also use my TRIZ 40 principles from HW5 for part 3.
http://www.futuredimensions.net/2010/03/feeling-is-believing-%E2%80%93-touchable-holography-research-pushes-boundaries/
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18202242
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=32&ved=0CB8QFjABOB4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.11.9577%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&rct=j&q=Future%20of%20holography&ei=L_X-TJngFIT7lwe_3-3ICA&usg=AFQjCNFA137CAkNKWRe3K_9soa7uDlJWTA&sig2=BJweoczvJ53Ong5TCXYhzQ&cad=rja
2. Outline for report/presentation:
I first plan on discussing the current, available technology in the field of holography.
I will then discuss what the near future for holography looks like based on my research.
Lastly, I plan on discussing some of my views for the later future of holography, perhaps based on the development of the technology by applying TRIZ 40 principles.
3. One of my links in the answer to question 1 would fit into the last category of my project. The other two could fit into the second section. So, for part 2, I could use the first and second links. For part 3, I would use information from the third link mentioned above. I can also use my TRIZ 40 principles from HW5 for part 3.
Homework 5
1. a. I thought Randy Pausch was an extraordinary individual. He is extremely driven, and a very interesting character. What I took from it is that you should get the most you can out of life by doing what you love. This gave me motivation to go after my dream. While I do not have one in mind, it made me consider start somewhere and just going after it. I have always liked the idea of working for the FBI. Even if that's not my ultimate destination, I feel it is worth going after, if nothing else, to see where it will take me.
b. I am still planning to work on the future of Holograms.
2. Future of birth control:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12340896 - This article is interesting, because it focuses solely on the future of male birth control.
http://kinseyconfidential.org/birth-control-pill-men/ - This article also focuses on male birth control, but where it differs is that it talks about the possibility of a birth control pill for men.
http://science.jrank.org/pages/1768/Contraception-Future-contraceptive-methods.html - This article discusses the cost involved in finding new methods of birth control. Time and money for research in the past has been very high, but as the years have gone by, the amount of time and money needed has decreased.
Future of Robotic Surgery:
http://www.providence.org/alaska/ppmag/robot_jun05.htm - This article is interesting, because it discusses the future of a specific type of surgery, Laparoscopic surgery.
http://books.google.com/books?id=p70afWyqcrMC&pg=PR14&lpg=PR14&dq=%22Future+of+Robotic+Surgery%22&source=bl&ots=sRNpTIk5vt&sig=vawvseSayAjSDu68HJLKBZ0km2A&hl=en&ei=FfL-TLK7K4WKlwf3-ZGgCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFQQ6AEwCDge#v=onepage&q=%22Future%20of%20Robotic%20Surgery%22&f=false - This article is useful because it discusses the future of robotic surgery over the next 10 years.
http://www.karmanos.org/view_news.asp?id=691 - This article is valuable because it discuses the future of surgery as micro surgery and the use of robotics in diagnosis.
Future of holography:
http://www.futuredimensions.net/2010/03/feeling-is-believing-%E2%80%93-touchable-holography-research-pushes-boundaries/ - This article is interesting because it discusses the ability to feel the hologram, not just seeing an image.
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18202242 - This article is useful because it talks about the use of holographic cameras used underwater to do marine studies.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=32&ved=0CB8QFjABOB4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.11.9577%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&rct=j&q=Future%20of%20holography&ei=L_X-TJngFIT7lwe_3-3ICA&usg=AFQjCNFA137CAkNKWRe3K_9soa7uDlJWTA&sig2=BJweoczvJ53Ong5TCXYhzQ&cad=rja - This article focuses on the dependence of the future of holography on storage as holograms will require large amounts of space to store.
3. Applying the TRIZ method to holography, I could see how holograms could be used in the entertainment industry to give the viewer a stronger sense of actually being there, similar to what 3D TV and movies are doing now. It could also be used in many of our other current technologies. Take GPS for example; it could display your route on the dashboard of your car. It could also expand to communication. Your cell phone might project the image of the individual you are speaking with, similar to what the iPhone 4's face to face communication does now.
4. Applying the TRIZ principle of segmentation, holography could be separated to be able to move the image to a different display. So, if you receive a phone call at home, you can move the image from your phone to your TV, or if your in your car, move the image to your dashboard.
Using asymmetry could be useful in the storage of holograms. For instance, if you have a person displayed on a holograph, you would only need to store half of the image and mirror the other half to create a full image, but only use half the space.
Universality would be quite useful in the growth of holography. If everyone is using the same methods, everyone can expand on each others' designs instead of have to focus on their own.
Combination could be used to include holograms into other technologies. This would enforce my idea about your cell phone or TV having a holographic display.
Prior counteraction could be used in assisting with the storage space problem with holography. If there is too much data already store, the device can alert you to or automatically remove old holograms to make way for more current ones.
Inversion could prove useful in the development of holography. I always envision an image displayed above some type of platform or projector, but the image could be designed to display beneath it.
Dynamicity could help in the area of a moving display. If the projector is moving, such as an individual walking with a cell phone, using dynamicity would aid in creating a viewable image.
Mechanical Vibration might be used in the display mechanism to actually produce the image. The different vibration would cause different shapes causing the image to change.
Rushing through is a principle which could improve the apparent quality of the image. If it is continuously changing and the changes occur rapidly, it would be hard for an individual to notice defects.
Inexpensive short life doesn't seem like it would help much in the area of holography, but I can see some potential. If the lifetime of a display is short, it may be easier to simply get a new one, rather than investing in expanding the life of the current one.
b. I am still planning to work on the future of Holograms.
2. Future of birth control:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12340896 - This article is interesting, because it focuses solely on the future of male birth control.
http://kinseyconfidential.org/birth-control-pill-men/ - This article also focuses on male birth control, but where it differs is that it talks about the possibility of a birth control pill for men.
http://science.jrank.org/pages/1768/Contraception-Future-contraceptive-methods.html - This article discusses the cost involved in finding new methods of birth control. Time and money for research in the past has been very high, but as the years have gone by, the amount of time and money needed has decreased.
Future of Robotic Surgery:
http://www.providence.org/alaska/ppmag/robot_jun05.htm - This article is interesting, because it discusses the future of a specific type of surgery, Laparoscopic surgery.
http://books.google.com/books?id=p70afWyqcrMC&pg=PR14&lpg=PR14&dq=%22Future+of+Robotic+Surgery%22&source=bl&ots=sRNpTIk5vt&sig=vawvseSayAjSDu68HJLKBZ0km2A&hl=en&ei=FfL-TLK7K4WKlwf3-ZGgCA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=9&ved=0CFQQ6AEwCDge#v=onepage&q=%22Future%20of%20Robotic%20Surgery%22&f=false - This article is useful because it discusses the future of robotic surgery over the next 10 years.
http://www.karmanos.org/view_news.asp?id=691 - This article is valuable because it discuses the future of surgery as micro surgery and the use of robotics in diagnosis.
Future of holography:
http://www.futuredimensions.net/2010/03/feeling-is-believing-%E2%80%93-touchable-holography-research-pushes-boundaries/ - This article is interesting because it discusses the ability to feel the hologram, not just seeing an image.
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18202242 - This article is useful because it talks about the use of holographic cameras used underwater to do marine studies.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=32&ved=0CB8QFjABOB4&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.11.9577%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&rct=j&q=Future%20of%20holography&ei=L_X-TJngFIT7lwe_3-3ICA&usg=AFQjCNFA137CAkNKWRe3K_9soa7uDlJWTA&sig2=BJweoczvJ53Ong5TCXYhzQ&cad=rja - This article focuses on the dependence of the future of holography on storage as holograms will require large amounts of space to store.
3. Applying the TRIZ method to holography, I could see how holograms could be used in the entertainment industry to give the viewer a stronger sense of actually being there, similar to what 3D TV and movies are doing now. It could also be used in many of our other current technologies. Take GPS for example; it could display your route on the dashboard of your car. It could also expand to communication. Your cell phone might project the image of the individual you are speaking with, similar to what the iPhone 4's face to face communication does now.
4. Applying the TRIZ principle of segmentation, holography could be separated to be able to move the image to a different display. So, if you receive a phone call at home, you can move the image from your phone to your TV, or if your in your car, move the image to your dashboard.
Using asymmetry could be useful in the storage of holograms. For instance, if you have a person displayed on a holograph, you would only need to store half of the image and mirror the other half to create a full image, but only use half the space.
Universality would be quite useful in the growth of holography. If everyone is using the same methods, everyone can expand on each others' designs instead of have to focus on their own.
Combination could be used to include holograms into other technologies. This would enforce my idea about your cell phone or TV having a holographic display.
Prior counteraction could be used in assisting with the storage space problem with holography. If there is too much data already store, the device can alert you to or automatically remove old holograms to make way for more current ones.
Inversion could prove useful in the development of holography. I always envision an image displayed above some type of platform or projector, but the image could be designed to display beneath it.
Dynamicity could help in the area of a moving display. If the projector is moving, such as an individual walking with a cell phone, using dynamicity would aid in creating a viewable image.
Mechanical Vibration might be used in the display mechanism to actually produce the image. The different vibration would cause different shapes causing the image to change.
Rushing through is a principle which could improve the apparent quality of the image. If it is continuously changing and the changes occur rapidly, it would be hard for an individual to notice defects.
Inexpensive short life doesn't seem like it would help much in the area of holography, but I can see some potential. If the lifetime of a display is short, it may be easier to simply get a new one, rather than investing in expanding the life of the current one.
Homework 4
1. The prediction market I am choosing from www.intrade.com is 'The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections'. It is currently at 79.2. I am also investing in 'Republican Party candidate to win 2012 Presidential Election,' which is at 41.8.
2. Top 10 other markets:
New Orleans to win Super Bowl XLV, which is on the practice market.
175+ banks to close during 2010.
Intrade.com to be in business on Dec 31, 2010.
The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.
Spotify to be launched in the United States before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010.
Netflix to have 20.0 million (or more) subscribers at the end of 2011.
GM to deliver 500 Volts to dealers on/before 31 Mar 2011.
Central Park to have 35.0 inches (or more) of snowfall between 1st Oct 2010 - 30th Apr 2011.
Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record.
The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013.
3. Current Prices of the above 10.
New Orleans to win Super Bowl XLV, which is on the practice market. - 48
175+ banks to close during 2010. - 45
Intrade.com to be in business on Dec 31, 2010. - 95
The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012. - 38.7
Spotify to be launched in the United States before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010. - 65
Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2014. - 30
GM to deliver 500 Volts to dealers on/before 31 Mar 2011. - 85
Central Park to have 35.0 inches (or more) of snowfall between 1st Oct 2010 - 30th Apr 2011. - 26
Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record. - 21.8
The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013. - 45
It was hard to find a market that was "too low," with the exception of the first one, which I believe is a shoe in. The intrade.com one is very high, but it should ultimately close at 100, so that will make money. The rest are about what I would expect, but I think overall, they will go up.
4. I am going to split my $1000 between two markets. The Saints to win SB XLV, and Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections. So, Saints trading at 48, will cost 4.80 per share, giving me 104 shares. Republicans trading at 79.2 will cost 7.92 per share, giving me 63 shares. That comes out to 998.16. So, I'll have 1.84 left over, which will go toward my lunch tomorrow.
2. Top 10 other markets:
New Orleans to win Super Bowl XLV, which is on the practice market.
175+ banks to close during 2010.
Intrade.com to be in business on Dec 31, 2010.
The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.
Spotify to be launched in the United States before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010.
Netflix to have 20.0 million (or more) subscribers at the end of 2011.
GM to deliver 500 Volts to dealers on/before 31 Mar 2011.
Central Park to have 35.0 inches (or more) of snowfall between 1st Oct 2010 - 30th Apr 2011.
Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record.
The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013.
3. Current Prices of the above 10.
New Orleans to win Super Bowl XLV, which is on the practice market. - 48
175+ banks to close during 2010. - 45
Intrade.com to be in business on Dec 31, 2010. - 95
The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012. - 38.7
Spotify to be launched in the United States before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010. - 65
Higgs Boson Particle to be observed on/before 31 Dec 2014. - 30
GM to deliver 500 Volts to dealers on/before 31 Mar 2011. - 85
Central Park to have 35.0 inches (or more) of snowfall between 1st Oct 2010 - 30th Apr 2011. - 26
Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record. - 21.8
The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013. - 45
It was hard to find a market that was "too low," with the exception of the first one, which I believe is a shoe in. The intrade.com one is very high, but it should ultimately close at 100, so that will make money. The rest are about what I would expect, but I think overall, they will go up.
4. I am going to split my $1000 between two markets. The Saints to win SB XLV, and Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections. So, Saints trading at 48, will cost 4.80 per share, giving me 104 shares. Republicans trading at 79.2 will cost 7.92 per share, giving me 63 shares. That comes out to 998.16. So, I'll have 1.84 left over, which will go toward my lunch tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Computing the Future HW3
2) From what I have found out about the Delphi method, there are some slight differences between the generally accepted standard and the way we performed it in the class. For starters, the panelist are typically experts on the topic at hand. While we students may be somewhat knowledgeable on the subjects, I would by no means consider us experts. I also noticed that there is usually a panel director. We had Dr. Berleant act as our panelist. I would say that he functioned more as a mediator than a facilitator. For example, there were no questionnaires, surveys, etc. that would normally be administered by a facilitator. Lastly, the biggest difference is that we were not anonymous. Usually panelist would have full anonymity, but we however did not.
3) Obviously since we are not experts or anonymous, this can greatly have a negative effect on our results. One way we could fix this is by doing research on the topic of discussion. With further knowledge on the subject, we can provide more accurate results. Also, if we could anonymously submit our thoughts, we could cut down on "group think" or any general convergence. While convergence is not always bad, too much campaigning can change people's opinions.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Homework 2
Part 1
When will app downloads on the iPhone surpass music downloads?
There are 12 million songs on iTunes, but only 250,000 apps. However, Apps have reached 7 billion downloads in 2.2 years, whereas it took 5 years for music to reach this level. Fortune predicts that this could happen by the end of the year. Nowadays people are more apt to customize their phones with apps, whereas in the past it was with ringtones from music downloaded. Also, many of the apps are free, but you have to pay for most music. Both are easily accessible, but with the price difference it is easy to see how app downloads have grown so quickly.
I personally think that since there are simply many more songs available, it won’t be until sometime next year that this will happen. However, it would not be hard to believe that some people would think it would take even longer. Then again, an optimistic group could follow the rising growth and come up with an estimate that this will occur before year’s end. By applying the Delphi method, we can eliminate the two extremes and average the middle. This would cut out this years estimate as well as the estimate for late next year. This would leave my estimate of early next year. This is absolutely theoretically possible and I do not see any risks or possibilities that would prevent it from occurring.
Part 2
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Using the equation .06x=1 (.06 being 6%, x being the amount of years, and 1 being a 100% increase, or a doubling), it would take 16 2/3 or 16.66667 years.
Estimate the percent per year of increase in the complexity of PCs if this complexity doubles every 2 years.
Using the equation 2x=1, solve for x, x=.5 or 50%.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PCs if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
Using the equation 1.5x=1, this would mean a 2/3 increase or .66667%/year.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
Using the equation .02x=1, it would take 50 years for your money to double.
When will app downloads on the iPhone surpass music downloads?
There are 12 million songs on iTunes, but only 250,000 apps. However, Apps have reached 7 billion downloads in 2.2 years, whereas it took 5 years for music to reach this level. Fortune predicts that this could happen by the end of the year. Nowadays people are more apt to customize their phones with apps, whereas in the past it was with ringtones from music downloaded. Also, many of the apps are free, but you have to pay for most music. Both are easily accessible, but with the price difference it is easy to see how app downloads have grown so quickly.
I personally think that since there are simply many more songs available, it won’t be until sometime next year that this will happen. However, it would not be hard to believe that some people would think it would take even longer. Then again, an optimistic group could follow the rising growth and come up with an estimate that this will occur before year’s end. By applying the Delphi method, we can eliminate the two extremes and average the middle. This would cut out this years estimate as well as the estimate for late next year. This would leave my estimate of early next year. This is absolutely theoretically possible and I do not see any risks or possibilities that would prevent it from occurring.
Part 2
Estimate the doubling time of the software development productivity of the average programmer, if productivity increases at 6%/year.
Using the equation .06x=1 (.06 being 6%, x being the amount of years, and 1 being a 100% increase, or a doubling), it would take 16 2/3 or 16.66667 years.
Estimate the percent per year of increase in the complexity of PCs if this complexity doubles every 2 years.
Using the equation 2x=1, solve for x, x=.5 or 50%.
Estimate the percent per year of increases in the complexity of PCs if complexity doubles every 18 months, as some think it is doing.
Using the equation 1.5x=1, this would mean a 2/3 increase or .66667%/year.
What is the doubling time of your money if you have it in the bank making 2% interest per year?
Using the equation .02x=1, it would take 50 years for your money to double.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Do I need cable TV?
We all are familiar with youTube, Hulu, and a host of other video streaming websites. With the shift of everything being done on computers, cable TV could soon be a thing of the past. This article (http://www.rustybrick.com/Hulu-Netflix-YouTube-Killing-Traditional-Cable-TV.html) gives some insight to that possiblity. Check it out to see if you might need to reconsider your current setup.
I personally agree. I am right now in the process of setting up my home PC on my LCD. With all the possibilities of video content, I may soon decide to drop cable TV.
I personally agree. I am right now in the process of setting up my home PC on my LCD. With all the possibilities of video content, I may soon decide to drop cable TV.
XM radio's possible demise
Thinking of getting XM radio? I personally think it's a great idea, but if you're not interested in switching over to Sirius later, then you might want to reconsider. This article (money.cnn.com/2006/07/26/commentary/mediabiz/index.htm) discusses the sales hit XM has taken recently, and their future is looking pretty grim. Check out the link for the details.
I know they have a deal with GM, in which XM is included in many of their new model vehicles. And I've seen people that wouldn't have previously purchased the service come to enjoy it and continue with it when the trial period is over. Hopefully this will help them out.
I know they have a deal with GM, in which XM is included in many of their new model vehicles. And I've seen people that wouldn't have previously purchased the service come to enjoy it and continue with it when the trial period is over. Hopefully this will help them out.
Google on your brain
I recently read an article, Google on your brain (http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/26/technology/futureoftech_kirkpatrick.fortune/index.htm). The article discusses how in the near future we will be personally connected to the internet through a microcomputer. Every individual will have instant access to copious amounts of data, readily available anywhere on the internet. It is quite interesting. Check it out in the link above.
One aspect of the article mentions that if this were to happen, we would not have the need to learn a second language. I personally do not agree with this. I don't care how advanced the technology may come, "knowledge is power" is only valid if you personally have that knowledge, not just access to it.
One aspect of the article mentions that if this were to happen, we would not have the need to learn a second language. I personally do not agree with this. I don't care how advanced the technology may come, "knowledge is power" is only valid if you personally have that knowledge, not just access to it.
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